南宫ng28

It was in 2010 that Lee Kun-hee, chairman of the Samsung group, warned that South Korea’s most famous company risked becoming a “corner shop”. In fact, at the time of his premonition, Samsung Electronics, by far the most profitable company in the sprawling Samsung empire, was on the verge of a golden streak.三星集团(Samsung)董事长李健熙(Lee Kun-hee)在2010年曾警告说道，这家韩国最知名的企业面对变为“街角小店”的风险。事实上，在他收到这一预警之际，三星电子(Samsung Electronics)——在可观的三星集团内，最赚的就数三星电子——将要转入一段黄金时期。It cemented its place as the world’s biggest technology company by sales, and as Asia’s most valuable brand, ahead of Japan’s Toyota, no less. It went on to become the first South Korean company to reach a market capitalisation of $200bn. Yet now, as 72-year-old Mr Lee lies gravely ill in a hospital bed following a heart attack, his paranoia looks almost prescient.三星电子稳固了其作为销量最低的科技公司的地位，还打破日本丰田(Toyota)，沦为亚洲最有价值的品牌。

然后它又沦为第一家市值突破2000亿美元的韩国企业。然而，当72岁的李健熙因脑溢血心脏病住进医院，重病在床，他当初的懦弱现在看上去极具先见之明。Samsung Electronics is certainly no corner shop. It continues to dominate the country’s corporate landscape to an uncomfortable degree. Yet its problems are manifold and its horizons darkening. Last month it reported third-quarter profits down 60 per cent as margins on smartphones withered. Now, as it prepares for life after Mr Lee, who will be succeeded by his son, Lee Jae-yong, there is talk of a wholesale revamp. As if to rub salt in the wound, the market capitalisation of arch-rival Apple, whose third-quarter results were as rosy as Samsung’s were funereal, this week touched $700bn, more than four times that of the South Korean company today.三星电子当然不是街角小店，它在韩国企业界仍然独占鳌头，真是叫人心里不平。然而它也不存在种种问题，前景日益黯淡。

上个月三星电子发布了第三季度财报，由于智能手机业务的利润率衰退，季度利润同比下降60%。眼下，随着李健熙之子李在镕(Lee Jae-yong)将接任他掌理这家公司，有传言说道三星电子要展开大调整。

而三星电子主要竞争对手苹果(Apple)的三季度业绩极为亮眼，更加点缀三星业绩惨淡。苹果的市值在本周看清7000亿美元，比这家韩国企业当前市值多出三倍有余，无异于往三星的伤口上又马利亚了把盐。

What has gone wrong? Paradoxically, most of Samsung’s problems are down to its smartphones, the product for which it has become world renowned.三星电子出有了什么问题？自相矛盾的是，三星的问题多数都出有在智能手机上，而其享有盛名全球也正是靠着智能手机。At the premium end of the market, where handsets cost upwards of $500, its once-spirited challenge to Apple with its Galaxy smartphones has faded. The US company’s more stylish products command a higher premium and occupy an app-rich ecosystem that has proved far easier to turn into cash. Despite huge spending on marketing, Samsung has never managed to persuade consumers that its brand is as desirable as Apple’s. Nor is its generic Android operating system as easy to tailor as the proprietary iOS system. To top it all, Apple is now offering larger-screen phones, cancelling out Samsung’s biggest differentiating feature.在售价低于500美元的高端手机市场，三星电子曾以Galaxy智能手机向苹果发动挑战，如今这股雄心已慢慢消失。

苹果公司的产品更加时尚，定价也更高，而且这家美国企业还打造出了一个享有众多应用程序的生态系统，现实证明该系统更容易建构收益。尽管三星在营销上投放极大，但未曾顺利劝说消费者，让他们像渴求苹果那样去渴求三星。其标准化的安卓操作系统也不像苹果自有的iOS系统那样更容易自定义。雪上加霜的是，苹果现在又获取大屏手机，这就抹掉了三星仅次于的差异化特征。

At the cheaper end of the market, too, Samsung’s advantages are fast evaporating. A crop of Chinese companies based in the fiercely competitive Shenzhen cluster, including Huawei, Xiaomi, Lenovo and ZTE, is robbing Samsung of volume and pricing power. In the second quarter of 2013, Samsung accounted for more than 32 per cent of global smartphone sales, according to research company IDC. By the third quarter of this year, that had shrivelled to less than 24 per cent. “Samsung is being squeezed at both ends,” says Benedict Evans, a partner at venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.在较低端市场，三星的竞争优势也在很快消失。华为(Huawei)、小米(Xiaomi)、误解(Lenovo)和中兴(ZTE)等一批中国公司都在抢走三星的市场份额和定价权。

市场研究公司IDC的数据表明，2013年二季度，三星智能手机出货量占到全球的将近三分之一；到今年三季度，这个数字已削减为将近24%。风险投资公司Andreessen Horowitz的合伙人班尼迪克埃文斯(Benedict Evans)回应：“三星在低低端两头夹攻。”At home, Samsung finds itself under pressure of a different kind. Many South Koreans take great pride in the company’s achievements. There is, however, also resentment at the dominance of Samsung and other chaebol conglomerates, which are seen to have benefited from government largesse and to have prospered by squeezing the little guy. Official policy is slowly catching up with public anger. From next year, a tax on retained earnings is likely to come into force. Other measures will cajole big companies into distributing more of their profits in wages and dividends.在国内，三星则面对一种有所不同的压力。许多韩国人对三星的顺利深感十分自豪。

然而，人们对三星和其他大企业所占有的优势地位也深感愤愤不平，实在这些大企业受到了政府的照料和扶植，是通过断裂小企业的生存空间才兴旺一起的。政府政策也在渐渐交织民怨。

从明年起，韩国政府将税一项存留收益税，并将采行其他措施，引领大企业通过工资和收益的方式将利润更好地分配过来。One might conclude Samsung’s best days are behind it. Certainly, the transition to the third generation of Lee family control will be testing. The group is in the process of an upheaval that some put down to an attempt by the family to reduce inheritance tax. That may be so, but spin-offs could also result in a simpler, more investor-friendly structure.有人也许不会指出，三星的黄金时期早已过去。

当然，管理权向李氏家族第三代的过渡性将是一次考验。该集团正在经历一场剧变，一些人将这场剧变归结李氏家族企图增加遗传税的希望。这么说道也许到底，但合并业务也有可能可谓一种更加简要、更加不利于投资者的公司结构。

On the operational front, the position may not be quite as grim as it appears. The company has culled its smartphone range, a strategy that should bring economies of scale as well as simplification. Samsung makes more than 320m smartphones a year and has a market share nearly five times that of Xiaomi, its nearest Chinese rival. That means it ought to be able to go head-to-head on price, particularly as it steps up its big manufacturing operations in low-cost Vietnam.在运营方面，形势也许并不像表面看起来的那么不利。三星早已缩减了旗下智能手机的种类，这一策略应当不会带给规模优势和修改效应。

三星智能手机的年产量多达3.2亿部，市场份额比最相似自己的中国竞争对手小米大了近4倍。这意味著三星应当一拳起价格战，尤其是它已在成本较低的越南更进一步不断扩大了生产规模。Mark Newman, an analyst at Bernstein Research, says the worst could even be over for Samsung’s handset business. He predicts the massive semiconductor division is entering a golden era of its own. According to his reckoning, it is worth paying current depressed prices for Samsung shares for access to the semiconductor business alone. If he is right, that would mean the market has marked down the smartphone business to zero, surely an overreaction. Even the corner shop of Mr Lee’s nightmares is worth more than that.伯恩斯坦(Bernstein Research)的分析师马克纽曼(Mark Newman)回应，三星手机业务最坏的时候也有可能早已过去。

据他预测，三星可观的半导体业务部将要步入归属于它自己的黄金时代。在他显然，即便只看其半导体业务，也有一点趁眼下股价下滑之际应从三星股票。如果他的观点是对的，那就解释市场早已相当严重高估了三星智能手机业务的价值。即便李健熙噩梦成真为、三星知道沦落了一家街角小商店，它的价值也不只这么点儿。

本文来源：南宫ng28-www.starmeuble.com